Dry Spells in Croatia: Observed Climate Change and Climate Projections
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study performs a systematic analysis of the recent and future changes dry spells (DS) in Croatia. DS are defined as consecutive sequences days with daily precipitation less than 5 mm precipitation-per-day threshold (DS5). Daily data come from dense national rain gauge network (covering seven regions) span period 1961–2015. The spatial temporal observed mean (MDS5) maximum (MxDS5) seasonal annual were analysed by means Kendall tau method partial trend method. Future DS5 assessed employing three regional climate models (RegCM4, CCLM4 RCA4) covering EURO-CORDEX domain 12.5-km horizontal resolution, resulting realistic orography land–sea border over forced at their boundaries four CMIP5 global models. For reference 1971–2000, observed, well modelled, analysed, model errors assessed. Finally, projections statistics based on simulations under high medium greenhouse gases concentration scenarios (i.e., RCP8.5 RCP4.5) focus change signal between 1971–2000 two periods, 2011–2040 2041–2070, examined. A prevailing increasing MDS5 was found warm part year, being significant mountainous littoral North Adriatic coastal region. An MxDS5 also year (both spring summer), it particularly pronounced along coast, while coherent negative pattern autumn. By applying methodology, an increase very long (above 90th percentile) half 55-year all seasons, except autumn when shortening detected. during periods positive for summer regions, weakly winter not conclusive spring, year. It that no RCM-GCM combination is best cases, since most successful combinations depend season location.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2073-4433']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050652